The College Football Playoff poll came out for the first time this season on Tuesday. The only real shock was Texas A&M in fourth place and Washington in at number five. PAC 12 folks are losing their minds over this.
Chill out folks. First, it doesn’t matter where they are this early in the process. Second, it’s the right call for now. Washington has played one quality team so far this season. The Aggies have played a tougher schedule at this point. If Washington wins out their strength of schedule will improve. They would be undefeated. And the Huskies would have a thirteenth data point with the PAC 12 Championship Game which the Aggies wouldn’t have. Washington only misses the playoff if they lose a game and, quite frankly, a one-loss PAC 12 team doesn’t belong in this playoff. The conference just isn’t that strong.
Other teams outside the top four that control their own destiny and would make the playoff if they win out are Ohio State, Nebraska and Florida because that would not only mean winning their conference but it would mean beating a team currently in the top four. Of the three Florida has the most difficult path with three of their four remaining games on the road against Arkansas, LSU and Florida State. On top of that the Gators would likely have to beat Alabama in the SEC Championship Game. Not very likely.
In the past we have seen teams in the mid-teens in the first poll make their way up to the playoffs. Looking at this poll I think it is extremely unlikely that anyone outside the top thirteen can make it into the playoffs even if they win out. It would take an incredible amount of chaos for any of those teams to make it in this year. I believe that every team in that top thirteen has a pathway to the playoffs. It will be difficult but not impossible for any of the two-loss teams in this group to make the climb.
In my opinion, the team with the least chance to make it in of the top ten is Louisville. The Cardinals would look to be in good shape sitting at number seven but that ranking is based on what Louisville has accomplished so far. The problem is that thanks to the collapse of Houston there are no impressive wins left on Louisville’s schedule unless Clemson somehow loses two ACC games allowing Louisville to make the ACC Championship Game. Otherwise, Louisville will likely remain stagnant right where they are while others jump over them down the stretch. Louisville must hope that there are only three conference champions with one loss or less.
The SEC has five teams in the top 13. Four of them are in the SEC West. The SEC East must step up their game if the conference is going to maintain its claim to best in the nation. Tennessee was a popular pick in the preseason to make the four team playoff. The Vols are not even present in the first CFP poll. This is why the first CFP poll does not come out until November. At this point the Vols are just hoping to be bowl eligible.
If you are an Ohio State fan, rest easy. You are in the same situation as Florida. None of this matters unless you win out and winning out would mean defeating Michigan. In that case, the Buckeyes would replace Michigan in the top four. The same holds true, with a few variables, for Nebraska but if the Huskers win out, they will be in the playoffs.
Both of the two-loss teams in the top ten, Auburn and Wisconsin, need a little help to make it in but winning out gived them a reasonable chance. Their concern is that one-loss teams behind them may well jump over them if those teams continue to win.
It is still quite early in the process and there will certainly be some surprises down the stretch. Be that as it may, I find it next to impossible that there will be a Big 12 representative in the playoffs. I believe that Washington is the PAC 12’s only chance at getting in the playoffs. If Washington loses a game along the way I think we may actually see a conference with two teams in the playoffs.
I have pointed out all of the above for one reason. I want you to appreciate just how wonderful the college football season truly is for the fans. With only a month of the regular season left, there is still so much at stake. There is so much intrigue left for us to contemplate. Enjoy it, because it will be January before you know it.