The National Hurricane Center upgraded the disturbed area of low pressure east of Nicaragua and Coast Rica to a Tropical Depression (Tropical Depression SIXTEEN). The depression is expected to strengthen into a Tropical Storm within the next 12-24 hours as it moves slowly N/NW. The updated graphic below shows the current forecast track of this system.
Model guidance continues to suggest impacts beginning as early as Saturday and continuing through late Monday. Timing will ultimately depend on the trajectory of the system, which will continue to be fine tuned as the system moves closer to the US coast. The National Weather Service says that systems this far south have always been a challenge to forecast in terms of when they will actually begin to move north.
While it is too early to determine exacts impacts as well as exact numbers, plenty of moisture will be available in the vicinity of the system to suggest the potential for heavy rainfall. Wind may also become an issue. Both concerns will again be dependent on the track of the system.
Remember that a more westerly track into the Central Gulf Coast puts our region on the wetter side, meanwhile a track into the Florida Big Bend would put most of the region on the drier side.
Stay tuned for more updates.